Whenever
you are trying to make a case for a particular policy, it helps to have some
facts to support your case.
Of
course, there are facts…….. and then…. there are facts. Or, as Mark Twain
popularised it ‘Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics’. Today, no-one
is quite sure who said it first, nor who originally described witnesses in
three classes ‘liars, damned liars and experts’. It is natural that
people will try to promote the facts that best fit their story. In politics, as
in business and PR, this is called ‘spin’.
I
was recently reminded of ‘spin’ , when Iain Duncan Smith, the Secretary
of State for Work and Pensions made a big speech in support of his welfare
reform agenda. On first reading, his list of statistics about employment,
income and child poverty were quite impressive. That was until you looked at
how time periods had been carefully chosen (and were different for each issue),
changes in data methodology had been conveniently ignored, and relevant contextual
data just forgotten.
Less
surprising was that the bedroom tax, and its disastrous outcomes, was not
mentioned. Neither was mention made that his Universal Credit policy is
way behind schedule, way over budget and that HM Treasury has been simply
unable to approve the business case for the policy ie IDS’s sums simply don’t
add up.
Competition
about facts, their interpretation and analysis, is at the heart of debate. One
child’s kicking a football against a wall can be described either as ‘getting
healthy exercise’ and/or ‘making an interminable noise’.
However,
this is quite different from simply ‘making facts up’. Far too often, I
hear or see assertions of fact about particular issues where it is clear that
the said facts have just been invented. Rarely a day goes by when I don’t see
an assertion which has no basis in reality. They are commonly found in letters
to newspapers or postings on websites, and almost inevitably from someone remaining
anonymous.
More
worrying is when you see the same (un-true and un-factual) assertions being
endlessly repeated. The House of Commons’ Library has received so many
enquiries from MPs about the contents of some viral e-mails that it has now
published some notes which contrast the e-mail claims and the facts.
Leaving
aside economic statistics, it is not really surprising that, right now, the
statistical divide between fact and fiction is dominated by international aid,
immigration, and welfare and benefit entitlement.
So,
if you’ve seen those e-mails that claim that the UK has given international aid
of £351m to Hamas (actual = £0), £1.4bn to Haiti (actual = £3.3m in 2012) and
many, many more….. or that every immigrant to the UK receives £29,000 in
benefits in the first year……..you can find out the truth for yourself at
and
